CSS Monthly Shipments: Covid-19 Continues to Have an Uneven Impact

Stats Fact of the Week

NFPA’s June 2020 Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) report, a monthly source of fluid power shipment and order data trends used to benchmark company performance, continues to highlight COVID-19’s uneven impact on the fluid power industry. Extreme year-to-year declines in May’s orders activity led to strong year-to-year declines in June shipments, with a noticeable exception in pneumatics due to strong demand in the medical equipment/ventilator market.

June’s year-to-year analysis of orders demonstrated this uneven impact with strong declines in industrial hydraulic and other products, while declines softened surrounding pneumatic and mobile hydraulic orders. These changes in order declines most likely will equate to similar effects on next month’s shipments.

More promising data includes June’s month-to-month shipments analysis, which registered high single-digit and low double-digit growth. Although this can be an early indicator of slowing rates of decline, consecutive months of this type of month-to-month results is a stronger indicator. Keep an eye on this and the monthly change in year-to-date analysis results to get a better idea of growth/decline in the fluid power industry’s rate-of-change.

Preliminary June 2020 shipments of fluid power products were also impacted when compared to both the previous year as well as the month before. Final May 2020 shipments of fluid power products decreased for the 2020 calendar year when compared to the same time period in 2019. The 12-Month Moving Average (MMA) index of 86.7, an indicator of change in the size of the industry, continues to drop below 100, while the 12/12 Ratio index of 86.9, an indicator of change in the rate of growth in the industry, is below 100 as well. The direction and speed in which these two index indicators move, as well as their position above or below 100, can help demonstrate a short-term outlook for our industry.

The preliminary results for all three rate-of-change indicators listed above suggests that the rate-of-decline is slowing and could be beginning to flatten out. Next month’s results will likely reveal more information about what to expect for the future of the fluid power industry.

More details on COVID-19’s specific impacts on mobile and industrial hydraulic shipments as well as pneumatic shipments are available in the CSS Report.

The Confidential Shipments Statistics (CSS) Program is the only monthly source of aggregated industry data for the U.S. fluid power industry. This report presents data on monthly shipments and orders collected from our membership and helps users understand trends and anticipate change within the industry. Member companies can benchmark their own company’s performance against overall industry performance using the CSS results. Data is collected from participating U.S. fluid power manufacturers, compiled by a 3rd party to maintain confidentiality, and results are then only sent to CSS participants.  Enroll in CSS Online

Questions and inquiries about participating in the Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) program can be directed to Eric Armstrong at earmstrong@nfpa.com or (414) 778-3372.