Stats Fact of the Week: Week of April 29, 2019
NFPA’s March 2019 Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) report, a monthly source of fluid power shipment and order data trends that help benchmark company performance, highlighted the impact of increasing prices and declining orders on industry shipments by showing a slowdown in March. Don’t let month-to-month shipment comparisons fool you. Even though monthly percent change figures were positive, all comparisons to last year paint a picture of an increasing decline in industry segment growth rates. Early indicators such as the declining orders over the past couple months and the healthy increase in fluid power product PPI data over the last several months pointed to the current diminishing shipment results.
Preliminary March 2019 shipments of fluid power products decreased 3.6% compared to March 2018 and increased 6.0% when compared to February 2019. Mobile hydraulic, industrial hydraulic, and pneumatic shipments decreased when compared to March 2018. Mobile hydraulic and industrial hydraulic shipments increased, while pneumatic shipments decreased when compared to last month.
Final February 2019 shipments of fluid power products increased 0.9% for the 2019 calendar year when compared to the same time period in 2018. Both the 12-Month Moving Average (MMA) index of 100.5, an indicator of change in the size of the industry, and the 12/12 Ratio index of 108.2, an indicator of change in the rate of growth in the industry, maintained levels above 100. The direction and speed in which these two index indicators move, as well as their position above or below 100, can help you understand the short-term outlook for our industry.
While declining conditions may have negatively affected March shipments, the affect was somewhat minimal. However, if industry order and fluid power product pricing trends continue on their current path, the slowdown effect on industry shipments can have a much greater impact. Keep a close eye on both these trends over the months to come.
Questions and inquiries about participating in the Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) program can be directed to Eric Armstrong at firstname.lastname@example.org or (414) 778-3372.