Developing Custom Projections with the Stats Toolkit U.S. Forecasting Report

Stats Deep Dive

NFPA’s Stats Toolkit is a cloud-based statistical tool that combines NFPA data sources with popular analytical tools to expands users’ economic view of their companies and industry. It allows users to benchmark company performance, automate time-consuming calculations, conduct industry analysis, identify leading indicators, and create custom forecasts with simple point-and-click menu options that generate graphs and hard data that can be easily transferred to other reports, presentations, and files.

Toolkit applications include:

  • Market Trends Report
  • Market Share Report
  • Correlation Analysis
  • Custom U.S. Forecasting
  • Custom Global Forecasting

This week’s featured application, the Custom U.S. Forecasting Report, combines the user’s domestic company data with an end use outlook weighted allocation model to develop a custom three-year U.S. forecast for the user. The user then has the ability to update the custom forecast for any internal and/or external factors not taken into consideration when the original custom forecast was developed. Once the user is satisfied with the custom forecast, it is applied to the user’s historical company data and displays the full data set (both historical and outlook) in both percent change from the previous year and dollar bar charts.

NFPA Stats Toolkit Custom U.S. Forecasting Report

Above is an example of a user’s selection of domestic company data for a mobile hydraulic cylinder manufacturer. The user’s monthly data is annualized and displayed in both percent change from the previous year and dollar formats.

NFPA Stats Toolkit Custom U.S. Forecasting Report

The user then selects end use markets and enters weights based on the company’s customer market allocation, as shown above. As end use markets are selected and weights assigned, the three-year forecast for each market is also displayed to the left. After markets and weights have been selected, a three-year custom forecast or “Total Weighted Growth Rate” is displayed.

NFPA Stats Toolkit Custom U.S. Forecasting Report

The user can then adjust the custom forecast for any internal and/or external factors that haven’t been taken into consideration when the original custom forecast was developed, creating a “User Alternative Growth Rate,” as shown above.

NFPA Stats Toolkit Custom U.S. Forecasting Report

Once the user has completed the custom forecast input process, creating both a “Total Weighted Growth Rate” and a “User Alternative Growth Rate,” and is satisfied with the custom forecast that has been constructed, the user can apply one or both growth rates to the historical company data and display the full data set (both historical and outlook) in both percent change from the previous year and dollar bar charts.

Important Reminder: Participation in NFPA’s Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) program for manufacturer and product supplier members is required to access the Stats Toolkit. For more information about the CSS program and to enroll, please CLICK HERE.  Distributor and service supplier members receive limited access and are not required to participate in CSS.

To register for a Stats Toolkit login, please CLICK HERE.

Questions? Contact Eric Armstrong at earmstrong@nfpa.com or (414) 778-3372. Eric Armstrong also offers a free Stats Toolkit Walk-Through Webinar for those individuals who would like a detailed walk-through of this valuable tool.