MAPI – Manufacturers Alliance Economic News and Reports

A weekly round-up of the MAPI resources available to NFPA members through NFPA’s membership in MAPI.

Issues in the Brief

The Price of Oil Falls Again
The price of oil has decreased by 39% since June, mainly because of increased U.S. oil production and slowing growth in world consumption. Barring Middle Eastern turmoil, the price will likely remain low.

For a Manufacturing Revival, Sourcing Is Everything
We do not yet have statistical confirmation of a U.S. revival, but some indicators are promising. More domestic sourcing and rising export share would help push manufacturing past the tipping point.

Notes From an Italian Forum on Next Industrial Revolution
Achieving the EU’s target of sharply raising industry’s share of GDP by 2020 will require productivity improvements. Germany’s “industry 4.0” fad could play a role in growth for European manufacturing.

Brazil at a Crossroads
Over the past 15 years, Brazil has made significant progress on raising incomes and taking millions of people out of poverty. A more stable economy with relatively sound fiscal and monetary policies was enough to unleash economic growth and fulfill the economy’s output gap.

Reasons for Optimism in 2015
As I noted to the audience of COOs and CFOs, I see no indication of an imminent U.S. recession. In the last three quarters, most of the growth has come from consumers and business investment.

What Keeps European Manufacturing From Expanding
Questions raised during a discussion touched upon the trend value of the euro (likely to keep depreciating), policy options of the European Central Bank (it will engage in unconventional measures), and the impact of lower oil prices (for the most part positive for Europe).

 

Economic Update

U.S. Industrial Outlook: Widespread Growth Ahead
Job gains are the core driver of economic growth. Manufacturing will continue to grow faster than the overall economy, though the housing recovery will be less robust than previously forecast.

Asian Manufacturing Outlook December 2014
The slowing in Chinese economic growth has lasted longer than most analysts expected; Japan’s somewhat unforeseen recession and India’s slow progress with economic reform have added to regional weakness.

European Industrial Outlook December 2014
European manufacturing has slowed markedly since our June outlook, though production should accelerate to just over 2% in 2015. The Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely linger on, negatively influencing private sector spending.

MAPI Foundation Economic Forecast: Jobs, Replacement Demand Highlight Growth
The MAPI Foundation, the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, released its quarterly economic forecast, predicting that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will expand 2.8% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016. Both are declines from the August report—of 3.0% and 3.3%, respectively.

Latin America Manufacturing Outlook December 2014
This biannual report examines the latest trends in selected manufacturing industries in Latin America and provides related forecasts. The focus is on Latin America’s three largest economies—Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina—as these countries account for more than 80% of the region’s manufacturing output.

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