CSS Monthly Shipments: Despite September Uptick, Industry Decline Accelerates

NFPA’s September 2015 Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) report, a source of fluid power shipment and order data trends often used to benchmark company performance, shows a continued decline in our industry.

Preliminary September 2015 shipments of fluid power products increased 1.7% when compared to last month yet decreased 14.4% compared to September 2014.  When compared to last month, industrial hydraulic and pneumatic shipments increased and mobile hydraulics slightly decreased. However, when compared to September 2014, all of these areas decreased.

Final August 2015 shipments of fluid power industry products decreased to an overall 8.0% for the 2015 calendar year when compared to the same time period in 2014.  Both the 12-Month Moving Average (MMA) index of 100.2, an indicator of change in the size of the industry, and the 12/12 Ratio index of 96.3, an indicator of change in the rate of growth in the industry, continue to decline toward or below levels of 100.  The direction and speed in which these two index indicators move, as well as their position above or below 100, can help you understand the short term outlook for our industry.

The question now is when we’ll hit a turning point. The CSS data will show us when it’s happening. In addition to looking at the monthly 12/12 ratio index, measuring the difference between each month’s 12-Month Moving Average (MMA) index and 12/12 Ratio index over time will reveal any turning points within the data series. Will that turning point happen this year? Only the data can tell.

The Confidential Shipments Statistics (CSS) Program
The only monthly source of aggregated industry data for the US fluid power industry.  This report presents data on monthly shipments and orders collected from our membership and helps users understand trends and anticipate change within the industry.  Member companies can benchmark their own company’s performance against overall industry performance using the CSS results.  Data is collected from participating US fluid power manufacturers, compiled by a 3rd party to maintain confidentiality, and results are then only sent to CSS participants.

Questions and inquiries about participating in the Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) program can be directed to Eric Armstrong at earmstrong@nfpa.com or 414-778-3372.

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