CSS Monthly Shipments: Continued Decline Has Economists Looking for a Brighter 2016

NFPA’s July 2015 Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) report, a monthly source of fluid power shipment and order data trends often used to benchmark company performance, shows a continual decline in year-to-date percent change analysis of overall fluid power shipments since February 2015.  Declines contrast what many economists forecasted as a period of growth not much more than a year ago.

Preliminary July 2015 shipments of fluid power products decreased 13.5% compared to July 2014, and decreased 6.2% when compared to last month.  Decreases were consistent across the industry.

These preliminary July decreases build upon slumps already shown in the final June data. Final June 2015 shipments of fluid power industry products decreased to an overall 6.0% for the 2015 calendar year when compared to the same time period in 2014.  Both the 12-Month Moving Average (MMA) index of 102.8, an indicator of change in the size of the industry, and the 12/12 Ratio index of 99.8, an indicator of change in the rate of growth in the industry, continue to decline toward or below levels of 100.  The direction and speed in which these two index indicators move, as well as their position above or below 100, can help you understand the short term outlook for our industry.

Despite concerns over a slow 2015, economists who recently spoke at NFPA’s Industry and Economic Outlook Conference (IEOC) in August reinforced a positive outlook for 2016.

The Confidential Shipments Statistics (CSS) Program

The only monthly source of aggregated industry data for the US fluid power industry.  This report presents data on monthly shipments and orders collected from our membership and helps users understand trends and anticipate change within the industry.  Member companies can benchmark their own company’s performance against overall industry performance using the CSS results.  Data is collected from participating US fluid power manufacturers, compiled by a 3rd party to maintain confidentiality, and results are then only sent to CSS participants.

Questions and inquiries about participating in the Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) program can be directed to Eric Armstrong at earmstrong@nfpa.com or 414-778-3372.

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