Issues in the Brief
Continuing Evidence of U.S. Manufacturing Improvement
The release of the May manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) extends a string of recent evidence that the U.S. manufacturing sector is finally shaking off its post-financial crisis growth malaise.
The Question of Full Employment
In May, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a remarkably low 4.3%, the lowest level since May of 2001. In the past, few would have doubted that this was either at or close to full employment, the level below which wage and inflation pressures begin to create growth-killing instabilities.
A Changing Economy Challenges the Fed
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s monetary policy body, announced an increase of 25 basis points in the target for its consequential federal funds rate.
The Fight for Cuba’s Future
The great British economist Joan Robinson once noted about India that whatever you can rightly say about it, the opposite is also true. These days, the same observation about the considerably smaller, but nonetheless very consequential, country of Cuba holds true. This large island nation, once the site of a near nuclear disaster, has captured global attention with a swirl of often contradictory domestic and international disruptions that are rapidly shaping its future.
A Happy Independence Day for America’s Manufacturing Sector
I’m not sure I would call it fireworks, but the June manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) certainly contains some buoyant signs for the U.S. factory sector. The overall Purchasing Mangers’ Index rose by nearly three percentage points to 57.8%, its highest level of what has been an impressive post-August 2016 run.
Strong U.S. Job Gains, Murky Outlook
U.S. uncertainty is the risk for the global economic picture. The economic numbers have been a bit too soft for comfort. Risks from the retail sector and from political challenges that could impede the progress of promised economic policies have exacerbated the sense of unease.
U.S. Industrial Outlook: Stronger World Propelling U.S. Manufacturing
The upswing in the global economy that began in the winter of 2016 continues apace. All told, the MAPI Foundation’s forecast remains relatively unchanged from the February 2017 report.
Machinery and Computers Lead the Way to Stronger U.S. Manufacturing
Today’s global uncertainties can quickly present head- or tail-winds to future U.S. growth. In addition to our quarterly scenario for U.S. manufacturing growth, the June 2017 report also explores the boundaries of plausible factory sector growth through 2020.